Letter from Kenneth Jessen
Transportation – October 2008 – Colorado Central Magazine
Editors:
Politicians are promising something they cannot possibly deliver. The price of oil, thus the price of gasoline, is not controlled by the United States. Oil is an international commodity, and 79% is owned by foreign countries, many of which are not friendly to the United States. It seems that politicians want to beat up on “Big Oil,” but this is not the problem. Oil is become increasing scarce -it is not renewable. The increase in price during the last year is due in part to the steady decline in the value of the U.S. dollar. Recent strengthening of the dollar has resulted in a temporary reprieve in the price at the pump -but it will not last. Another even larger factor is demand, especially in India and China. These countries add millions of new cars each year. The oil futures market and speculators add to the problem. Production quotas, set by cartels such as OPEC, also control the supply and thus the price of oil. All of these factors conspire to drive up the cost of gasoline, but conservation is something under our control.
Drilling for more oil is a popular idea, and the public is led to believe that the bad guys are those that are unwilling to drill off shore. This will only momentarily increase supply and will have little effect on price. Besides, from the time oil is discovered, drilled, pumped and refined, experts say it will take seven or more years to reach the consumer. By that time, gasoline is expected to top $8 a gallon.
The best short-term strategy is conservation in the form of higher gas mileage vehicles. However, they tend to be less powerful, smaller and may not suit the lifestyle of many U.S. citizens. Automobile manufacturers are being forced to achieve higher overall gas mileage and will be forced to curtail production of less fuel-efficient vehicles. This means fewer gasoline-powered SUVs and large pick-ups.
For the long run, a petroleum free country should be our objective. Oil is not a renewable energy source. Hydrogen-powered vehicles have been proposed and are even available from certain automobile manufacturers. An entirely new infrastructure would be required to make the switch. To use as a fuel, hydrogen has to be liquefied and kept at an extremely low temperature. It is explosive, and even the smallest pin hole in the fuel system will cause it to leak. Its transfer from tanks under pressure to a tank in an automobile cannot be done safely by the average consumer. The most abundant source is water, but to produce liquefied hydrogen requires a great deal of energy.
T. Boone Pickens has proposed liquefied natural gas as our future fuel. It is also a non-renewable source, but there is a lot more natural gas than oil. An automobile can easily be converted to run on natural gas, and many have been operating on this source of energy for years. Using it to replace gasoline will drive up its cost, and thus heating your home may become more expensive.
Growing our way out of this crisis with ethanol has driven up food prices and has not been a good choice. There is insufficient land area in the United States to replace our need for gasoline with farm-produced ethanol. Besides, if we continue in this direction, we will only end up importing our food instead of our oil. In addition, ethanol contains 27% less energy per unit volume than gasoline.
Hybrid vehicles are an interim step. Through the recovery of their braking energy, they are able to improve gas mileage. Newer hybrids are about to be introduced that can be plugged in at night and for short distances will run entirely on electricity. Purely electric vehicles are limited in range by present-day battery technology. New technology is about to appear on the market. When the plates within a battery are replaced by microscopic wires, capacity is estimated to increase ten-fold. However, before we jump on the electric car bandwagon, we need an abundant source of cheap electricity to replace all of the energy we now receive from oil.
Wind power provides an immediate source of renewable energy and should be expanded. Wind turbines are not restricted to those monsters you see in Eastern Colorado. Backyard wind generators are on the market and have been for many years. Solar has been around for decades and is just now proving to be cost effective. There is even a solar array along Colorado 17 in the San Luis Valley north of Alamosa.
The most promising source of large amounts of electric power is nuclear even given the slight risk involved. Unlike a coal-fired power plant, it does not have a carbon footprint nor is sulfur dioxide released into the air. Yucca Mountain, a project that the U.S. Government has been working on for nearly 20 years, will place the waste a thousand or more feet below the surface of the earth with no risk to the public of radiation exposure.
Colorado of the future will probably look quite different than it does today. Wind farms will extend all the way across the eastern portion of the state. Every home may have a solar panel on its roof or a wind turbine in its backyard. Nuclear power will eventually replace coal. We may even see the construction of large hydroelectric facilities by damming our major rivers. Future housing developments will probably be integrated with industry to reduce the need to commute. In densely populated areas, public transportation will continue to rise as more commuters abandoned the daily use of their cars. High-speed rail travel, powered by electricity, will make inroads into air travel as airlines reduce service as a result of rising fuel cost. Driving around in a high horsepower, V-8 powered, gas-guzzling pickup may become something seen only on the History Channel!
Kenneth Jessen
Loveland
