Letter from Stephyen Glover
Sundry – September 2005 – Colorado Central Magazine
Dear Ed:
It’s been a while since I’ve felt the urge to expound, but somehow today seems right. There are a number of both local and world issues that I’d like to comment upon, in no particular order.
1) The world energy crisis. First, thank you for publishing a letter to the editor that referred to “Hubbert’s Peak” in regard to the upcoming energy crisis. I so wish that more people understood the notion. The math is pretty simple and the implications are huge. What the world, and we in the US in particular, are going to face will be nothing like the oil “crisis” of the ’70s. That was strictly a political gesture. This crisis will admit to no quick, clean or political fix.
Basically, the world’s total oil endowment is finite and only marginally affected by price. So one is presented with a total sum of oil (and natural gas) that can be produced over a given timeframe. That makes a production curve that starts at zero, rises to some point, and declines in some way toward zero in the future. The shape of that curve is the only point of controversy; the area under the curve is fixed. People in the know place the point of peak world oil production somewhere between this year (Ken Deffeyes) and 2007. This leaves us virtually no time to mitigate the consequences. The “official” USGS projections use Harry Potter magic to move the peak out to 2020-30, but even a cursory look at their methodology reveals it to be laughable. Finally, back in the real world, prices for natural gas are rising as fast as oil, and the major oil companies are broadcasting the impending peak as clearly as their shareholders will tolerate. BP is now “Beyond Petroleum,” and Chevron ran hug
And we end up with an energy bill that is a joke. As a Republican, I had hoped that President Bush would “do a Nixon” on energy, as in take real steps in the same way that Nixon did with China (and supposedly no Democrat could touch). That would mean real incentives to conserve and rules to decrease demand, not fiddling around in the Arctic. And exactly why do we need to subsidize hybrid vehicles, when the manufacturers can’t keep up with the demand as it is? I’m in the oil business, and I can assure you we don’t need extra incentives to explore for oil and gas.
You have addressed economic issues in Chaffee County on many occasions. My immediate concerns for our area is its dependence on a tourist industry with the arrival of $3 to $4 gasoline, and the huge heating costs everyone will bear going forward during the winters. Unfortunately, the one sure way to bring down energy demand and prices is to have a major recession or depression. That’s one heck of a solution!
2) Evolution and “intelligent design.” Having moved from Kansas in the ’90s, this sort of issue is near and dear to me. Unfortunately for the intelligent people in that state, Kansas seems to find itself repeatedly leading the charge in the wrong direction. Saying that something is “just a theory” is not an insult. Heck, our understanding of gravity is “just” based on theories. And all scientific theories are subject to testing, verification, and refinement. Newtonian equations of gravity still are wonderful approximations that only fail in the most extreme of circumstances, but that’s one reason Einstein stepped in with his theories on time and space. And Einstein’s theories had trouble dealing with quantum-level interactions; hence the evolution of quantum mechanics. And the process continues.
But “intelligent design” notions are not theories and they are not science. They do not admit to testing or verification or refinement, unless somehow these notions propose to test and modify attributes that belong to a supreme being. It should be obvious that this is not the case. Faith-based notions and ideas are not part of any proper science curriculum. Perhaps they have a place in studies of comparative religion or in the political realm, but not in core science. With all we have to deal with in a rapidly changing world, the last thing the US needs is a dumbed-down and more muddled science curriculum for our children.
3) Referendums C&D. Having lived in a number of different states, and having paid taxes in all of them, Colorado folks should be thankful they have the Tabor Amendment around to protect them. Send in your money and it will be spent, guaranteed, and there will always be another government program that “needs” your money. Ronald Reagan was no genius, but his gut feelings here were absolutely on the mark. JUST SAY NO! You’ll be happy you did. But be prepared to see this issue attacked again and again — politicians of all persuasions hate having their hands tied in any fashion.
4) ATV issues. I own an ATV and I like using it. As I write this letter, no one seems to have the foggiest notion of just what changes are being proposed to their use in Chaffee County. An intelligent discussion normally starts there, so this is tough sledding. Anyway, my owner’s manual specifically states that ATVs are not to be driven on pavement, period. ATVs don’t have turn signals and have no requirement for rear-facing mirrors. They can’t safely drive posted speed limits on roads like CR 162, especially where the road is paved. So regardless of any other consideration, ATVs should not be allowed on paved county roads. Obviously, ATVs have no business on city streets. Imagine Hwy 24/285 in the summer in Buena Vista with ATVs added!
Allowing ATVs appropriate legal access on county roads around known trailheads like Baldwin Creek (off CR 162) makes sense. Maybe 1/4th mile either side of a trailhead? That seems reasonable. Using ATV taxes to fund improved vehicle/trailer parking? Perhaps, but any expansion of facilities should be carefully regulated locally. We already have areas that I refer to as “sacrifice zones”, where ATV (and more especially motorbike) use has torn things up pretty badly – try hiking Hancock Pass on a weekend — so expanded usage is a real concern.
Anyway, I hope the debate gets defined and stays civil. “Tree-huggers”, ATVers and county residents all have legitimate concerns with this issue.
My only hope is that the county commissioners understand that this isn’t a time-critical issue. They need to sit back and really study all the direct and unintended consequences of changing the present rules. Right now, a prompt decision to make no changes is perhaps the best choice.
Whew, that wore me out! It’s a beautiful Colorado day, and that means getting off the computer and out on a hike. Thanks for letting me spout off.
Stephen Glover
Nathrop
