Letter from Harvey N. Gardiner
Geology – August 2005 – Colorado Central Magazine
Dear Editors:
In the June issue of Colorado Central George Sibley made reference to the coming “oil peak” based on an article in Rolling Stone. I want to admit, up front, that I have not read Rolling Stone since the 1960s (but I do remember reading it then).
Mr. Sibley refers to M.K. Hubbert in his “Oil and Compost” article giving no explanation of who Hubbert was. M. King Hubbert was a petroleum geologist at the Shell Research Lab in Houston. In 1956, he predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. U.S. production peaked in 1970 and, as we all know, our increased dependence on foreign oil starts there. In 1969, based on pages of differential equations, Hubbert made two predictions for the world “oil peak.” His more optimistic calculation put the peak in 2000, and the bell-curve displaying the peak, followed by decline, is known as Hubbert Peak.”
Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a Princeton geologist, started working at the Shell Research Lab in 1958. He worked with, and knew M. King Hubbert, and has written two books concerning Hubbert’s Peak. The most recent is Beyond Oil: The view from Hubbert ‘s Peak 2005. This book is about petroleum geology and examines various fuel sources, including hydrogen. It is not a book about policy, politics, or future shock whatsoever.
World oil production has been flat since 1998. Production in 2003, the largest ever, was 3% more than production in 1998. This means world production is increasing at only 0.6% per year, but consumption in the U.S. may increase as much as 2.7% this year. Deffeyes has used Hubbert’s method of calculating the “oil peak,” with an additional 35 years (1969-2004) of information on world exploration and reserves, to conclude that we should designate Thanksgiving Day 2005 as a day to be thankful for 100 years of cheap oil. By Thanksgiving 2005 or early 2006, we are going over the “oil peak” and what that means is unknown.
Harvey N. Gardiner
Boulder
P.S.: Hubbert’s Peak sounds like a mountain, doesn’t it? Here’s an unwanted suggestion. There are still eight mountains in Colorado higher than 13,800 ft. that have not been named. Three of these unnamed mountains are in the Sawatch Range. Your June issue has a photo of Mount Shavano, Mount Antero, and Mount White. Immediately west of Mount White, above Baldwin Creek and Baldwin Gulch, is an unnamed peak 13,874 ft. high. I propose the name Hubbert’s Peak. A dead white male Texas petroleum geologist may ruffle feathers, but Chief Antero was not a local either. This way no matter what happens in the world oil market, Central Colorado could have a physical marker of Hubbert’s Peak.
